Within hours of Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith’s decision to switch parties, there were 50,000 sites on Google with the words “Parker Griffith” and “party switching.” Their numbers are sure to increase dramatically in the coming days.

But will it be a good move for the representative from the fifth district? Few, if any, of these articles really can say. That’s because we really don’t know as much about party switching as we think we do.

The Huffington Post attempts to convince us that this is practice is nothing new. But that doesn’t tell us how likely Griffith is to win reelection, or have much of a political future. Do voters trust a person who changed political parties? Does the jilted party try harder to defeat the “traitor?” Is the new party so accepting of a former foe?

Charles Mahtesian of the National Journal talks about motivations behind party switching, but it’s a tough thing to analyze. Everyone claims they are doing so for the good of their district, even if electoral politics or committee calculations are the real rationale for such a move.

Sean Trende’s title tells us plenty in his realclearpolitics article “Party Switchers Have Short Lifespans.” But he doesn’t provide us any rigorous analysis. He merely lists some success stories and failures, leaving us wondering how likely these wins and losses are.

So to analyze whether this was a good move for Congressman Griffith, I looked at all cases of members of the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate (noted with an asterisk) who switched parties while in office, as well as the result of their party switch, since 1980. I also note who benefited from the switch, and who did not. I define success as having won at least three subsequent terms in the House of Representatives (six years) or at least one reelection to the U.S. Senate (six years) as “good.” Defeat in a subsequent election, or primary for higher office can be considered “bad.” Those cases coded “unclear” either involve a retirement before re-election or have yet to be resolved.

Here’s a look at the outcome, year, Congress member, state and result:

Good, 1981, Bob Stump, AZ, wins 10 terms

Bad, 1981, Eugene Atkinson, PAloses in 1982 by 21 points

Good, 1983, Phil Gramm, TXWins special election, wins three Senate terms

Bad, 1989, Bill Grant, FL, loses in 1990 by 14 points

Bad, 1989, Tommy F. Robinson, AR, loses 1990 Republican governor primary

Good, 1994, Richard Shelby*, ALwins 2 Senate terms

Bad, 1995, Jimmy Hayes, LA, loses Republican Senate primary

Bad, 1995, Greg Laughlin, TX, loses Republican primary in 1996

Good, 1995, Ben Nighthorse Campbell*,CO, wins one term reelection

Good, 1995, Billy Tauzin, LA, wins 4 more terms

Good, 1995, Nathan Deal, GA, wins seven more terms

Unclear, 1995Mike Parker, MSwins one more term, loses 1999 governor’s race

Bad, 1999, Michael Forbes, NY, Loses 2000 Democratic primary

Bad, 1999, Robert Smith*, NH, loses 2002 Republican Senate primary

Unclear, 2001, James Jeffords*, VT, retires in 2006

Good, 2002, Virgil Goode, VA, wins three more terms, loses in 2008

Good, 2004, Rodney AlexanderLA, wins three more terms

Unclear, 2009, Arlen Specter*, PA, ?

Unclear, 2009, Parker Griffith, AL, ?

By my count, that means the good-bad-unclear outcome ratio is 8-7-4, indicating mixed support for party switching. Among Southerners, that’s a 6-4-2 split. Since 1998, the record is similarly mixed (2-2-3). For the House of Representatives, the record is 6-6-2. At this point, a coin flip with one of those Helen Keller quarters from Alabama isn’t such a bad move for Congressman Griffith.

Perhaps the best solution was the one adopted by former Democratic Party Congressman Phil Gramm. He resigned his House seat, ran in the special election for his own seat as a Republican, and won that open seat. A year later, he prevailed over Lloyd Doggett in the race to succeed John Tower in the U.S. Senate, carving himself a successful career in the upper branch of our nation’s legislature.

Perhaps Parker Griffith could have benefited from such a move, which insulated Gramm from charges of opportunism. But now we’ll never know. In addition, as the record suggests, he’s not even guaranteed to win the GOP nomination in 2010 for his own seat, given the presence of two Republican challengers (Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip) and perhaps the presence of others, given Griffith’s recent move. Just ask ex-Congressmen Greg Laughlin and Michael Forbes.