Now, as the economy itself falters and recession deepens, many in the new Congress and the President-elect are saying the same things: We must act, now, bold and decisively, to stimulate the economy. The Obama plan, still in development, may run upwards of $1 trillion.
No one disputes that the economy is ailing. But there’s plenty of doubt that a massive stimulus is the “cure.”
The Heritage Foundation, for examples, argues persuasively that, rather than spend hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ dollars on public works projects that would neither stimulate the economy nor speed economic recovery, Congress can boost employment and output beginning in 2009 by sharply cutting tax rates.
Heritage research found a tax cut-based stimulus package if enacted this year would:
1. Increase employment by nearly half a million jobs in what remains of fiscal year 2009, and by a million jobs in fiscal year 2010
2. Shorten the recession and add half a trillion dollars in additional economic output over five years
3. Achieve these results while reducing receipts by about $670 billion over five years
Further, Heritage research indicates Congress can achieve these economic outcomes and stimulate the economy by making the following tax policy changes:
1. Congress reduces personal income tax rates by an average of 14 percent starting January 1, 2009
2. Congress reduces the corporate profits tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent starting January 1, 2009
3. Congress makes permanent all of the other tax policy changes of 2001 and 2003 prior to the above two changes, including the lower tax rates on capital gains and dividends and permanent repeal of the death tax
If Congress enacts these tax policies, Heritage forecasts that relative to current policy:
1. Employment would be significantly higher in every year between 2009 and 2013.
2. Employment would be one million jobs higher in 2010, and on average higher by about 800,000 over the 5-year period
3. For a family of four, average incomes would be $1,700 higher in 2010 alone and nearly $1,000 in FY2009
4. The consumption of households would be significantly higher (by an average of $66 billion) as is private investment (by an average of over $40 billion)
Even those who doubt tax policy alone can cure recession, should recognize that it ought to be part of the equation.It’s essential, too, for bipartisan support for an Obama package - and bipartisanhip ought to be the goal of everyone from the new president on down.
Creating massive debt through hastily contrived public works projects is not a formula for economic recovery. A $1 trillion debt, in fact, might trigger the next recession.






