As soon as (ex) Alaska Governor Sarah Palin announced her resignation on July 3, speculation immediately focused upon her presidential ambitions for 2012. It wouldn’t be the first time a politician resigned before making a presidential run, or did not seek another term in office in order to lay the groundwork for a successful bid. But does such a strategy help?

In this column, I’ll examine not only what some journalists are saying, but also examine the success rate of both strategies, based upon the historical record of those who have tried similar tactics.

“Is the woman who tops most G.O.P. 2012 shortlists to challenge Barack Obama stepping down to get a head start on her next presidential campaign?” wondered Jay Newton-Small of the magazine Time in his article “Why Sarah Palin Quit.” Newton-Small’s article highlights the pros and cons of the decision. On one hand, it does little to boost her already thin resume on years in high office. She’ll lose the office title, and the platform that goes with it, including the ability to handle problems or sign beneficial legislation. Plus, resigning in mid-term makes you seem like a quitter.

On the other hand, there’s something to be said for running for office without an office. In addition to the outsider persona that Ronald Reagan could adopt, there’s plenty of time for her to study up on the issues. And her meteoric rise to fame in 2008 gives her all the platform she needs. In fact, without the responsibilities of the job in Juneau, she’s free to fly around the country, and even to Russia. Plus, the longer she stays in office, the greater the chances of having to make some unpopular decision that hurts her career, a natural disaster evacuation that makes one seem unprepared, or more controversial policy positions to give the opponent in future races.

Mike Allen from Politico adds that Palin has that book to write, has plenty of speaking arrangements in the works, and campaign cash to raise for future supporters in office, who need to give her those endorsements in three years.

At first glance, running for President while sitting in office seems like the smart choice. After all, Barack Obama won the Democratic primary nomination while serving as Illinois Senator, narrowly defeating another in-office candidate, Hillary Clinton. John Edwards, who chose not to be in office in 2008 never had a chance. On the Republican side, Arizona Senator John McCain bested ex-Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, ex-Tennessee Senator Fred Dalton Thompson, ex-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and ex-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. And both vice-presidential nominees did not have the title “ex” before them.

But the historical record is a little kinder to those running for president who were not currently holding office. Examination of party nominees, presidential challengers and contestants for open seats from 1944 to 2008 (excluding sitting presidents) shows that 57 percent of the those who ran without holding a political office won. Only one-third of those holding office on Election Day prevailed in their presidential bids.

So even though Sarah Palin winged a speech and rambled a bit, as well as choosing an odd day to step down, the historical record shows it was the smart plan for the now former Alaska Governor.