Republicans are about to be in for a rude shock. The summer of 2009 was supposed to be the GOP comeback. Obama was supposed to fall below 50 percent in his approval rating. The Democratic Party health care bill was supposed to be D.O.A. Yet evidence from the polls shows that the Democrats have already begun to bounce back. The question is how they did it.

After the disastrous 2006 and 2008 elections, the GOP no longer had to worry about the Bush effect. The Freedom Works folks had the TEA party concept as a great attention-getter. And they capitalized on a combination of Democratic in-fighting over the public option, and Obama’s vacation. Polls showed a dramatic slide in President Obama’s approval ratings, and public support for health care reform was below 50 percent

That was then. This is now: A new Associated Press poll shows President Obama’s approval ratings rose from 50 percent to 56 percent this month, according to the article “AP Poll: Obama’s Job Approval Rises Amid Concerns” Those disapproving of the president dropped 10 percent. The President also leads on the handling of the economy and health care in the poll, reversing results from the summer of 2009.

What happened? It was a combination of factors on both sides of the aisle.

First, the Democrats stopped trying to reach out to Republicans and independents, which wasn’t going to work anyway, given how Obama’s successes were only going to make the GOP go the way of the Whig Party. Instead, they concentrated on the group they should have been trying to sell their plan on from the start: Seniors.

The GOP made in-roads by playing on fears of big Medicare cuts to pay for the plan. But Democrats, led by Vice-President Biden, played the issue as one of trust in supporting the big government plan. As the party of big government on the economy, it was no contest. As the Associated Press article “AP Poll: Health Care Overhaul Has A Pulse” reveals, the effort paid off in the health care debate. “In a significant change, opposition among older Americans dropped 16 percentage points” from 59 percent opposed to 43 percent opposed, according to the article.

Second, the Republican leadership had plenty of counterattacks, but no rival plans. Honestly, what is the GOP plan? Do they want a bill that bans death panels and demands a birth certificate from President Obama? Those cries of “keep government hands off of Medicare” sound like a punch line. The TEA parties were a good visible prop, but a senior scared about paying for health care costs isn’t going to be swayed by some guy or gal in their 30s dressed up like an American colonial waving a sign condemning government spending. And for the sake of history, shouldn’t these folks be dressed like American colonials who then dressed like Indians, if we’re going to do a Boston Tea Party reenactment accurately?

Some Republicans do have good ideas. I like Congressman Royce’s proposal for HSA flexibility. The McCain plan from 2008 on tax deductable health insurance is more affordable. I’m sure Congressman (Dr.) Boustany had some good ideas in response to President Obama’s prime time speech, but he was ignored in favor of the two word response from a colleague.

Instead of playing prevent defense, the GOP tried an all-out wild blitz after the 2008 election. But it looks as though they’ve left themselves with “single coverage” downfield on the health care debate, by not having a good plan of their own.